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Weekly Focus: Focus Turning to US Data
The FOMC statement suggests the Fed is not far from the first rate hike. US data is key to our call for a September Fed hike and very important for financial markets. We expect higher short-end bond yields and lower a EUR/USD in the short term. In the euro area focus is back

Canadian May GDP Declines
May 2015 GDP surprised on the downside by falling 0.2% in the month following a 0.1% drop in April. Market expectations had been for unchanged activity in the month. This represented the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Weakness in the energy sector continued to weigh on overall GDP growth, with mining

USDCHF Testing Bullish Trend Line after ECI Bombshell
We've been paying particularly close attention to USDCHF of late, as the pair rallied into Bearish Gartley pattern completion last week, prompting a 100-pip drop, before last week's historically low unemployment claims drove the unit up through that resistance level. Yesterday, the rally stalled out against secondary pattern completion (marked

Will there be Another Ruble Rout?
Back in Jan/ Feb the Ruble was under attack, USDRUB reached a record high of nearly 80.00, causing intervention from Russian officials and hasty rate hikes to stem the decline in the currency. Things calmed down for the RUB over the next few months, however, it started to drift higher

Canada: Lower Real GDP in May Supports Second Consecutive Quarterly Decline in Output
The below-consensus print for real GDP in May does not provide much room for optimism. Continued broad-based weakness, with 13 of 20 sectors posting declines, gives ongoing reason for concern. Today's real GDP release puts renewed downward pressure on our outlook for Q2 real GDP growth. Incorporating the May release, we

Worst ECI Reading Since 1982 Gives Fed a Headache
The employment cost index has thrown a major spanner in the works today, following its lowest reading since 1982. While many view other metrics as holding more importance, in my view there are few more important right now than this. If the Fed wants evidence that inflationary pressures remain and its

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
USD/CHF faced some resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.0127 to 0.9072 at 0.9724 and retreated sharply. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise is in favor with 0.9524 support intact. Sustained break of 0.9724 will pave the way for 1.0127 resistance. However, break of 0.9524 will indicate near term

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
With 123.00 support intact, further rise is still in favor. Sustained trading above 124.43/47 resistance zone will pave the way for a test on 125.58 high. Break will resume the larger up trend. Nonetheless, break of 123.00 will indicate the rebound from 120.40 has completed at 124.47. Also, that will

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Another rise is mildly in favor 1.5465 minor support holds. Above 1.5689 will target 1.5929 resistance and break will extend the larger rise to 61.8% retracement of 1.7190 to 1.4565 at 1.6187. On the downside, below 1.5450 minor support will turn focus back to 1.5169 support instead.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
EUR/USD rebounds strongly in early US session but is held below 1.1128 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As noted before, the corrective structure of current decline argues that it's a leg inside the consolidation pattern from 1.0461. Hence in case of another fall, we'd be cautious on strong

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Pressured on Sharp Deceleration in Employment Cost Growth
Dollar drops sharply in early US session, in particular against European majors. Employment cost index rose merely 0.2% in Q2, much lower than expectation of 0.6%. That was also the smallest increase on record for 33 years. The sharp deceleration from Q1's 0.7% was also seen y some economists as

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Pressured on Sharp Deceleration in Employment Cost Growth
Dollar drops sharply in early US session, in particular against European majors. Employment cost index rose merely 0.2% in Q2, much lower than expectation of 0.6%. That was also the smallest increase on record for 33 years. The sharp deceleration from Q1's 0.7% was also seen y some economists as

US Data Eyed as Fed Hike Looms
Attention will remain very much on the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve as we head into week and month-end. The Fed statement released on Wednesday gave few clues on the timing of the first rate hike but left the door open to September while reiterating its data dependency. There appears

Russia Central Bank To Ease, Risk Of AUD Downside
'Today the Bank of Russia is releasing its key rate which is currently at 11.50%. Earlier this week, the central bank has announced that it stopped purchasing U.S. dollars for the account of its foreign exchanges reserves as the ruble hit at a five-month low on Tuesday. In addition a

Gold Set For Its Sixth Straight Weekly Decline
Precious-Gold set for its sixth straight weekly decline, where it dropped near its lowest level in five and a half years on Friday, as the acceleration in U.S. second-quarter growth enhanced expectations the Fed would raise interest rates in September.

European Market Update: Euro Zone Core Inflation Backing ECB View On Positive QE Impact Since ...
Analyst noted that EUR/USD breaking below the 1.0930 level had weakened the technical picture, suggesting more short-term EUR weakness. An unexpected dip in German retail sales data eroded the slight Euro gains from the early part of the session. The Euro regained some composure after Euro Zone July CPI core

AUD/USD Daily Outlook
No change in AUD/USD's outlook. With 0.7448 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is still expected to long term retracement level at 0.7182 next. On the upside, break of 0.7448 resistance will, however, indicate short term bottoming on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, stronger rebound would

USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral for the moment. the consolidation from 1.3102 might extend and another fall cannot be ruled out. But we'd expect support from 38.2% retracement of 1.2127 to 1.3102 at 1.2730 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. On the upside, above 1.3102 will extend

USDJPY Strength Even After Bad Advance GDP Data
USDJPY has bounced after FED statement which clearly stated that the rate hike is inevitable after further job gains. We think it could come in September or December, but December seems more likely. According to Reuters poll economic growth in US is picking up pace which goes in accordance with

EUR/USD Takes A Break At 1.0930
Bears failed to push though the weekly PP yesterday, but this does not change the bearish outlook on the Euro. The ceiling is still at 1.11, while the July low at 1.0810 is the target, meaning any rallies will be of a correctional nature The negative bias is reinforced by

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