Weekly Review and Outlook: Yen Bottomed in Near Term on Global Equities Selloff
Global equity markets were sold off sharply during the latter part of last week on expectation that Fed would taper the open-ended asset purchase program. The MSCI world index dropped to 1492.7 comparing to prior week's close of 1512.9, down -1.3%. DOW jumped new record intraday high of 15542.4 before

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD consolidated above 1.2796 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more sideway trading might be seen. But we'd expect deeper decline ahead. Below 1.2796 will target 1.2746 first. Break will resume whole decline from 1.3710 support. Also, this will complete a head and should top pattern

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY edged higher to 103.73 last week but formed a short term top there and retreated sharply. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. But downside should be contained by 99.94 support and bring rally resumption. Above 103.73 will target 61.8% projection of 77.13 to 96.70 from

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD dipped further to 1.5013 last week and formed a temporary low there and turned sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. But recovery should be limited by 1.5281 resistance and bring fall resumption. Decline from 1.5606 is expected to target a test on 1.4830 support.

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook
USD/CHF rose further to 0.9838 last week but formed a short term top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. As long as 0.9578 support holds, another rally remains in favor and above 0.9838 will target 0.9971 resistance. However, break of 0.9578 will

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook
AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.9593 before making a temporary low and turned sideway. Deeper decline is still expected as long as 0.9842 resistance hold and and below 0.9593 will target 0.9588 support. We'd be cautious on bottoming around that level. On the upside, above 0.9842 will indicate short

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook
USD/CAD's rise from 1.0013 extended to as high as 1.0392 last week but formed a short term top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.0216 support and bring another rise. The break of 1.0341 confirmed resumption of rise

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook
GBP/JPY's sharp fall last week indicates short term topping and more consolidations would likely be seen in near term. But downside is expected to be contained by 146.42 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 140.37 to 156.77 at 146.63) and bring another rally. The larger rise is in favor to continue through 156.77.

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook
EUR/JPY edged higher to 133.80 last week but formed a short term top there and retreated sharply. More sideway trading would likely be seen. But downside should be contained by 124.84 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 119.10 to 133.80 at 124.75) and bring another rally. We'd anticipate another rise through

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook
EUR/GBP recovered further to as high as last week but lost momentum since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, above 0.8596 will target 0.8636 resistance. Break of 0.8636 will indicate that whole correction from 0.8806 has completed and will turn outlook bullish for retesting

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook
EUR/CHF rose further to 1.2649 last week and met long term fibo level of 1.2646 but formed a short term top there and retreated sharply. More consolidation would likely be seen in near term below 1.2649. But downside should be contained by 1.2383 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2127 to

FX Return Analysis
The dollar was the notable under performer last week, losing ground against 6 out of 10 of the majors. This is a sharp reversal of fortune from the week prior when it was higher against all G10 currencies. Risk aversion gripped the markets last week, and this was reflected in

Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Stand aside

Although the greenback has fallen below yesterday's low of 0.9634 and the decline from this week's high of 0.9839 may extend weakness to previous support at 0.9578, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9550 and reckon price would stay well above chart support at 0.9521 and risk

Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5250

As the British pound continued to find good support just above the Ichimoku cloud bottom and has rebounded, suggesting near term upside risk remains for the corrective rise from 1.5014 to bring retracement of recent decline to 1.5145-50 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5282-1.5014), then 1.5175-80 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci

Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Hold short entered at 1.2975

Euro's intra-day strong rebound to 1.2994 due to the release of better-than-expected German IFO data suggests caution on our bearishness and this week's high of 1.2998 needs to hold to retain prospect of another retreat, below intra-day support at 1.2904 would bring test of the lower Kumo (now at 1.2890)

Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY - Stand aside

Although the greenback has retreated again after intra-day brief bounce to 102.13 and weakness towards this week's low of 100.83 cannot be ruled out, break there is needed to confirm the decline from 103.74 top has resumed for retracement of recent upmove to 100.50-55 but reckon 100.30 would limit downside

Weekly Focus: Dark Clouds Over Global Markets
Uncertainty on the Chinese economy and global monetary policy triggered turmoil in the markets but we see this as a correction, not the start of a new trend. US Fed signalled that a scaling down of the QE programme has moved closer. PMI figures show that China's upswing is slowing, but

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Stand aside

Despite intra-day brief rise to 0.8597, lack of follow through buying on break of previous resistance at 0.8590 and current retreat suggest consolidation would be seen and pullback to 0.8520-30 cannot be ruled out, however, break of 0.8470 (previous minor resistance) is needed to confirm top is formed at 0.8597,

U.S. New Orders for Durable Goods Jump in April, but Shipments Decline
New orders for durable goods jumped 3.3% in April 2013 partially to retrace an upwardly revised 5.9% decline (was -6.9%) in March that in turn, followed an outsized 6.4% jump in February. Much of the increase in overall orders was concentrated in an 8.1% jump in orders for transportation equipment,

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.0260

Although the greenback retreated after rising to 1.0393 yesterday and minor consolidation below this level would be seen, reckon pullback would be limited to 1.0280 and bullishness remains for recent upmove to extend further gain, a break of said resistance at 1.0393 would bring headway towards previous resistance at 1.0446