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The Weekly Bottom Line
Financial markets had a lot to digest this week with testimony from Fed Chair Yellen and data on consumer price inflation and real GDP. As the only major central bank in the advanced world looking to tighten monetary policy, financial markets are especially focused on the Federal Reserve. Chair Yellen's

AUD Shouldn't Expect Any Help from the RBA
It's going to be such an eventful week for the Australian dollar that it may set the tone for weeks to come. There is a deluge of economic data due from Australia, China and the US, as well the constant threat of the storm clouds hanging over Europe. The most

Weekly Focus: Renewed Focus on the Strength of US Economy
Risk assets supported by stronger data and lower tail risk More signs of stronger euro recovery US surprise index may have bottomed Yields to rise on Fed hike and higher inflation More downside in EUR/USD as Fed hikes draw closer

US Fourth-Quarter 2014 GDP Growth Revised Lower
The second estimate of fourth-quarter 2014 GDP saw the annualized growth rate cut to 2.2% from the first estimate of 2.6%. Market expectations had been for a slightly greater downward revision to 2.0%. Data continued to indicate moderation in growth from outsized gains in the third and second quarters of 2014 of 5.0% and 4.6%, respectively.

Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Stand aside

As dollar's retreat from 0.9547 (yesterday's high) turned out to be stronger than expected, suggesting top has possibly been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen, however, a sustained breach below 0.9450 is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent upmove to

Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5500

As the British pound has rebounded after intra-day brief fall to 1.5384, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen, however, if our view that top has been formed at 1.5552 is correct, upside should be limited to the lower Kumo (now at 1.5477) and bring another decline, a break

Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.1280

As the single currency has recovered after intra-day brief fall to 1.1176, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1220) would bring test of intra-day resistance at 1.1245, however, reckon previous support at 1.1270-79 would limit upside and bring another decline, below said support at

Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY - Stand aside

Although dollar has rebounded after holding above this week's low at 118.63 and further consolidation is seen with mild upside bias for corrective bounce to 119.55-60, reckon upside would be limited to this week's high at 119.84, bring another decline later. A break of the lower Kumo (now at 118.94)

US Session: Orders and Options Watch
EUR: The single currency recovered after yesterday's selloff to 1.1184 but offers are lowered to 1.1250, 1.1280 and 1.1300, more sell orders are reported at 1.1320-25, 1.1350 and in good size at 1.1380-90 (stops above), selling interest should emerge around 1.1400 and 1.1425. On the downside, bids remain at 1.1195-00,

Mid-Day Report: Euro Stays Weak Despite Stronger German CPI
Euro is set to be the weakest major currencies this week in spite of better than expected inflation data. German CPI rose strongly by 0.9% mom in February. The yoy rate turned positive at 0.1% yoy. Both were above expectation. Meanwhile, the German Bundestag approved the extension of Greece's bailout

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Stand aside

Although the single currency has continued to trade lower after resuming recent decline and near term downside risk remains for weakness to 0.7250, as this move is still viewed as the final phase of the wave v of recent wave (c), reckon downside would be limited to 0.7220 (61.8% projection

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Turn long at 1.2445

The greenback found support at 1.2388 yesterday and rebounded from there, retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and we are keeping our count that the price action from 1.2799 top (wave iii peak) is possibly developing into a triangle, hence downside would be limited and bring rebound

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Stand aside

As dollar's retreat from 0.9547 (yesterday's high) turned out to be stronger than expected, suggesting top has possibly been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen, however, a sustained breach below 0.9450 is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent upmove to

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5480

As the British pound has rebounded after intra-day brief fall to 1.5384, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen, however, if our view that top has been formed at 1.5552 is correct, upside should be limited to the lower Kumo (now at 1.5477) and bring another decline, a break

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.1280

As the single currency has recovered after falling to 1.1184 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1268) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon previous support at 1.1270-79 would limit upside and bring another decline, below said support at 1.1184 would add credence

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Stand aside

Dollar's rebound after holding above this week's low at 118.63 has retained our view that further consolidation would be seen and corrective bounce to 119.55-60 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to this week's high at 119.84, bring another decline later. A break of 118.63 would

USD/JPY - Little Activity as Japanese Inflation Reports Meet Expectations
The Japanese yen is unchanged on Friday, as USD/JPY trades in the mid-119 range. On the release front, the US will issue its second estimate of GDP for Q4, with a forecast of 2.1%. This is lower than the initial estimate of 2.6% in January. We'll also get a look

GBP/USD - Limited Movement Ahead of Key US Reports
The pound has stabilized on Friday, as GBP/USD trades at the 1.54 line in the European session. On the release front, the US will issue its second estimate of GDP for Q4, with a forecast of 2.1%. This is lower than the initial estimate of 2.6% in January. We'll also

Week In FX Fed Gives Nothing Away, Dollar in Demand
As to be expected, the Fed dominated this past week. Although the markets did not get the anticipated price moves when Yellen was giving her testimony on the ‘hill, that came on the back of Thursdays U.S CPI, she has certainly been able to keep market guessing on the timing

Gold Stable Ahead of US GDP Release
Gold has shown limited movement on Friday, as the spot price stands at $1205.02 in the European session. On the release front, the US will issue its second estimate of GDP for Q4, with a forecast of 2.1%. This is lower than the initial estimate of 2.6% in January. We'll

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