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Weekly Review and Outlook: Sterling Boosted by BoE as Focus Turns to GDP This Week
Sterling ended the week as the strongest major currency as boosted by more hawkish than expected BoE minutes. The pound will face an important test from GDP next week. Euro followed in spite of continuous drama in Greece and ended up as the second strongest. But the technical outlook in
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
The choppy recovery from 1.0520 extended higher last week. Overall outlook is unchanged as the consolidation pattern from 1.0461 is still in progress. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.1096 support turned resistance holds and downside breakout is expected. Below 1.0461
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY continued to engage in established range last week. Overall, the pair is staying in sideway consolidation and another fall could be seen. Below 118.32 will extend the decline from 122.01. In that case, we'd expect strong support from 115.55 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 105.19 to 121.84 at 115.47)
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD's rebound from 1.4565 short term bottom extended higher last week. Initial bias stays on the upside for further rally, with focus on 38.2% retracement of 1.7190 to 1.4565 at 1.5568. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside,
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook
USD/CHF attempted to rebound again last week but was limited well below 0.9862 resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and fall from 0.0127 is expected to resume later. Break of 0.9471 will target 100% projection of 1..0127 to 0.9471 from 0.9862 at 0.9206. Meanwhile, break of 0.9862 will
AUD/USD Weekly Outlook
The rebound from 0.7532 continued last week and edged higher. Further rise cannot be ruled out. But such rebound is viewed as a correction. With 0.7937 resistance intact, the larger down trend is still expected to resume later. Break of 0.7532 will extend the larger decline from 0.9504 to next
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook
USD/CAD continued to consolidate above 1.2086 temporary low last week. Initial bias remains neutral and more consolidation would be seen. As noted before, a medium term top should be in place at 1.2834. We'd expect recovery from 1.2086 to be limited by 1.2387 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook
GBP/JPY's rebound from 174.86 extended higher last week and the strong break of 179.28 resistance indicates that fall from 184.99 has completed. More importantly, the corrective pattern from 189.70 could be finished with three waves down to 174.86 too. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 184.99 resistance.
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook
EUR/JPY's recovery from 126.09 extended higher last week. Such recovery is still viewed as a correction and as long as 131.28 minor resistance intact, another fall is expected. Break of 126.09 will extend the larger fall to 61.8% projection of 149.76 to 130.13 from 136.67 at 124.53 next. However, break
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook
EUR/GBP dropped further to 0.7116 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. As long as 0.7230 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is still expected. As noted before, rebound from 0.7013 could have completed at 0.7384 already. Below 0.7116 will turn
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook
EUR/CHF edged lower to 1.0233 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered since then. Initial bias is neutral this week for some more consolidations first. Near term outlook stays mildly bearish as long as 1.0494 resistance holds. Deeper decline is still expected and below 1.0233 will extend
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
On balance, economic data this week continued to reflect a soft Q1. Housing data were mixed, with existing home sales rising but new home sales pulling back in March. Durable goods orders bounced back slightly in March, but not enough to reverse the sharp decline observed in February. Based on
The Weekly Bottom Line
It was a quiet week on the U.S. economic calendar. International developments, including unrest in the Middle East and unease about a potential Greek default moved into the spotlight. Greece's potential exit from the euro zone remained at the top of investors' minds as they anticipated the meeting of euro zone
The Changing Faces of Antipodean Currencies and Yield Seekers
The possibility of a Greek default is at the forefront of investor sentiment, but there's also a lot happening in Asia. Last week, a slew of economic data and some well-aimed comments from central bankers resulted in some big moves in Asia's major commodity currencies, the Australian and New Zealand
GBPUSD Up 600 Pips in Two Weeks - Time for a Pause or 1.53+ Next?
GBPUSD is putting the finishing touches on a stellar week. After dipping to 1.4860 on Tuesday, the pair has been on an absolute tear, rising a full 300 pips to trade at 1.5155 as of writing. In fact, the pair has traded higher 9 of the last 10 days and
Weekly Focus: Riksbanken to Add Fuel to the Currency War
Euro surprises coming down, US surprises set to head higher. This would underpin a lower EUR/USD and higher US yields and give less cyclical tailwind to euro stocks versus US stocks. The Fed is still on track for a September hike.
Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Stand aside
Although dollar's retreat from 0.9719 has kept price under pressure and near term downside risk remains for weakness towards support at 0.9494, break there is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to previous support at 0.9481, below there would bring further fall towards 0.9440-50 later.
Cable's rally after breaking previous resistance at 1.5080 confirms early rise from 1.4566 low has resumed and bullishness remains for further gain to 1.5175-80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5552-1.4566), then towards 1.5200, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to previous support at 1.5215 and price should falter below 1.5250.
As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after intra-day rise to 1.0900, suggesting the erratic upmove from 1.0520 low is still in progress and may extend further gain to 1.0920-30, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.0950-55 and price should falter well below 1.1000, bring retreat later.
The greenback has fallen again after intra-day brief bounce to 119.59, dampening our bullishness and suggesting the rebound from this week's low of 118.53 has possibly ended at 120.09, hence consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness too 118.70, however, only break of said support at 118.53 would signal
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