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Weekly Trading Forecast: FX Traders Prepare for Heavy Volatility on FOMC, GDP and ECB Stimulus
This past week's calm optimism was likely an interlude for a bigger shift in market conditions. With a FOMC decision, US GDP, ECB Stress test and much more ahead; stability will be put to the test.
Dollar and Market Confidence Ride on FOMC Decision
The US Dollar managed to muscle out a modest advance this past week despite favorable winds for investor sentiment (through benchmarks like S&P 500 and volatility indexes) as well as a persistent dovishness in rate forecasts.
Gold Losses to Accelerate on Less Dovish FOMC- Support Break Eyes 1206
Gold prices are softer this week with the precious metal off by 0.55% to trade at $1231 ahead of the New York close on Friday.
AUD Faces A Potential Breakout On US Heavy Event Risk
The Aussie may remain under pressure over the coming week as elevated volatility caps carry demand, while US-centric event risk offers potential “breakout” catalysts.
New Zealand Dollar at Risk on Dovish RBNZ, Status-Quo FOMC
The New Zealand Dollar may fall if the RBNZ withdraws its promise of future rate hikes while a status-quo FOMC statement sees Fed tightening bets rebuild.
USD/JPY to Eye Fresh Highs on Less-Dovish FOMC, More BOJ Easing
The fundamental outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish as Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) moves away from its easing cycle, but the dollar-yen may struggle to press fresh highs next week should the Bank of Japan (BoJ) refrain from further expanding its asset-purchase program.
USD/JPY Remains Capped by Former Support Ahead of FOMC, BoJ Meeting
The USD/JPY may stay capped by former support should the Fed retain a rather dovish tone for monetary policy, while the BoJ fails to act.
USDOLLAR Breaks October Downtrend, GBP’s GDP Rally Fizzles
GBPUSD's rally after the Q3 UK GDP report was short-lived today.
Pound to Fall on Ebbing BOE Rate Hike Bets if 3Q UK GDP Underperforms
The British Pound is likely to decline if a soft set of third-quarter UK GDP figures erodes Bank of England interest rate hike expectations.
GBP/USD at Risk for Fresh Monthly Lows on Slowing U.K. GDP
A marked slowdown in the U.K.’s 3Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may spur fresh monthly lows in GBP/USD as it drags on interest rate expectations.
British Pound Could Close Out Week with a Bang on UK GDP
With much of the FX market checking out through the final 24 hours of trade this week in deference to the heavy docket next week, there is one major that is still on the line for a possible fundamental shake up.
WTI Bounces From 80.00 Floor, Gold Remains Vulnerable Ahead Of US Data
WTI rebounded in recent trade as bears booked profits amid reports of Saudi supply cuts, meanwhile gold remains exposed to positive US data over the session ahead.
GBPJPY Long Scalps at Risk Ahead of UK GDP- 174 in View
A weekly opening range break on GBPJPY has triggered long-scalps ahead of tomorrow’s key event risk. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels.
GBP/USD to Face Slowing 3Q GDP- NZD/USD Bear Flag in Play
The GBP/USD remains at risk for a further decline on a dismal 3Q UK GDP print, while the bear flag in NZD/USD remains in focus ahead of the RBNZ meeting.
EUR/USD Pivots at Last Weeks Low - Surprise PMIs End EZ Data Drought
Has Euro-Zone economic weakness bottomed out in the near-term? If so, the Euro may find a lift.
Yen May See Greater Impact from Eurozone PMIs Than the Euro
Eurozone PMI figures may mean more for the Japanese Yen than the Euro if soft outcomes feed global slowdown fears and trigger market-wide risk aversion.
Dollar Advances Across the Board as Sentiment Breaks, CPI Steady
A fever of risk appetite in the equities market broke this past session and September inflation statistics for the US printed a steady – if below target – pace. How did the Dollar respond?
Crude Plummets To Critical Barrier, Gold Slumps On US CPI Surprise
WTI is pressing against a key technical floor following a dramatic plunge on the back of bearish inventories figures, meanwhile gold awaits guidance from US data.
USDOLLAR at Key Resistance - Reaction to Provoke EUR/USD, AUD/USD
The USDOLLAR Index continues to edge higher from its mid-October lows, but hasn't yet cleared a necessary level to reengage USD longs elsewhere.
EUR/USD Risks Larger Rebound on Slowing U.S. Inflation (CPI)
Another downtick in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may generate a larger rebound in EUR/USD as it dampens bets of seeing the Fed normalize policy sooner rather than later.
Pound at Risk on Status-Quo BOE Minutes, US Dollar May Rise on CPI
The British Pound may fall if minutes from October’s BOE meeting show the hawks unable to expand their ranks. The US Dollar may rise if inflation data tops forecasts.
Dollar Untroubled by Risk Swell, Rises As Peers Weaken
Investor sentiment – in the form of volatility readings and equity indexes – improved markedly this past session while rate forecasts for the Fed posted comparatively little progress
Crude Oil Recovers Ahead Of Inventories, Gold Awaits Cues From US CPI
The precious metals may be afforded some breathing room with an expected slide in upcoming US inflation data unlikely to bolster hawkish FOMC bets.
AUD/USD Risks Bearish Break on Slowing Australia CPI- 0.8600 on Tap?
The AUD/USD may fail to retain the wedge/triangle formation from earlier this month should Australia’s 3Q Consumer Price Index (CPI) report drag on interest rate expectations.
NZDCAD Outside Reversal Day Favors Short Scalps Sub-9050
An outside reversal candle off key resistance today shifts our focus to the short-side of NZDCAD. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels.
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